More... http://www.financialtrader.com/Commentary/Market_Confluence6.11.07.html

Rationale: Increasing Revenue Forecast Sinovac recently reported unaudited first quarter revenue of $3.93 million which was higher than we were expecting. Historically, the first quarter of the year is Sinovac’s lowest revenue quarter. This is because of year end vaccine stockpiling by Sinovac’s customers as well as business disruption caused by the Chinese New Year holidays.

Taking into consideration Sinovac’s exceptional first quarter revenue performance (up 134% vs. prior year) we believe it is appropriate to raise our first half revenue forecast. After reviewing Sinovac’s audited full year 2006 financials, we have decided to raise our estimate of Sinovac’s Cost of Goods Sold and Operating Expenses for the first half of 2007. This is to take into consideration the higher level of forecasted revenue, higher level of start-up expenses associated with Sinovac’s launch of Anflu (seasonal flu vaccine) and higher level of administrative expenses (associated with Sarbanes Oxley compliance). More... http://www.financialtrader.com/Investor_Contributed_Research/Sinovac_Research_Update5.31.2007.html

There are many possibilities such as another China based sell-off, interest rates breaching key support, or even the market falling under its own weight. The catalyst is speculative, but the current vulnerable market conditions rest in historical fact rather than opinion.

More... http://www.financialtrader.com/Master_Portfolio.html

But the 'new high' headlines create commissions, profits, and stokes euphoria as though it were a religious experience, or better yet a Jimi Hendrix experience. Is the bull market supply of euphoria now over with last call being whispered in the din of the buying frenzy?

More... http://www.financialtrader.com/Stock_Buy_and_Sell_Opportunities.html

After tracking crude oil prices from the short side of the trade since August of last year, the models turned bullish last week with a close above our $62.00 stop based on the West Texas Intermediate cash market. Despite the somewhat bearish supply and softer demand constructs, the price action simply overwhelmed even reasonable bearish arguments--if markets are ever reasonable.

The media bandied about the Iranians as the causal agent, but there is likely more under the surface than a story of a few hostages captured by a country that is renown in capturing western citizens, whether military or not. China demand is probably the culprit for higher crude oil prices, but that is speculative for now. More... http://www.financialtrader.com/Oil_and_Energy_Trader/Crude_Oil_Bull_Market.4.2.2007.html

There has been little need to update this futures special, save for our brief instructions to the media: prices have risen nearly vertical since we began our initial bullish forecast, in August of 2006. But last week was different.

The grain markets sold off sharply on what was perceived to be a very bearish crop report, with plantings forecast to reach nearly 91 million acres. Obviously, the funds--net long futures contracts--were the original liquidators and primary culprits for the price chill. From a fundamental perspective, the crop report managed to come in at the high end of expectations but still fell short of the number required to actually put the corn and grain complex bull market to rest. After all, existing ethanol demand will lick up much of the typical carryover leaving ending stocks still near historic lows. More...

http://www.financialtrader.com/Futures_markets/Futures_Markets_Technicals.html

Outperforming the S&P is not always a difficult feat, but the startling facts reveal that the portfolio achieved this return with 75% allocated to risk free government treasuries, and mostly avoided the free fall of early March. If you sleep well, you'll profit well, we say.

US Treasuries and Bonds Still a Buy

We believe that Treasuries remain safely positioned for the next quarter, but as we mentioned in earlier notes, some of the allocations will be rolled off into more promising stock positions in the very near future We have been bullish the bond market for several quarters now, and our fundamental and technical models continue to point to a softer economy, and lower interest rates. The capital markets speak louder than Fed rhetoric and unethical journalists that confuse news with gossip. See our original bond forecast here.

Speculative Stocks Growing Even Stronger

We have two speculative equities in our portfolio that performed very well for the quarter. Sinovac (SVA), our favorite Chinese stock, gained +23% and achieved a number of critical financial milestones. It is leaping down the path in what could be uber-profitability this year. As an added bonus, both its share price performance and management execution this quarter stirred growing institutional activity and accumulation. Pacific Ethanol, (PEIX) up +13%, despite the media and oil industry detractors, continues to execute in a turbulent energy environment and both stocks remain comfortably stashed in our portfolio well into the foreseeable future.  More...

http://www.financialtrader.com/Master_Portfolio.html

The Euro and Corn, No Leverage Needed

The cash based Corn position grew by +1.5% and is one of our favorites for the summer quarter, which should surprise many with a near 50% gain in the commodity. We see no discernable weakness in either corn fundamental demand, technical market construct, or the futures markets, even though the paid-for- media continues to try to talk prices lower. The Euro FX cash deposit is our widow and orphan position designed to generate slightly higher returns than US Treasuries. The Euro returned +2.5% for the quarter and remains in our portfolio as well.

Where Do We Go From Here? A simple call for action, of course. Write or drop an entry on our anonymous blog if you are interested in the continued free Financial Trader Research Portfolios, Notes, and Reports.

Sansar Capital Sansar Capital is a New York City based pan-Asian long/short fund launched in 2005 by Sanjay Motwani, who previously managed investments at the highly respected Kingdon Capital, an investment management firm. In addition, he also worked as a research analyst at Fidelity, Lehman Brothers, and Chase. In July 2005, Sansar Capital filed a 13G for a similar large position in Taiwan headquartered Gigamedia Ltd., when the stock was trading roughly 75% lower than current prices and continues to hold a sizeable position in the stock. In other words, Sansar appears to be a high quality investor, with a track record of success, particularly with small capitalization stocks.   More... http://www.financialtrader.com/Sinovac/Sinovac_Research_Update3.20.2007.html

But sentiment, a contrary indicator, continues to support a more immediate bullish scenario. As we noted earlier, from a fundamental perspective, the yield curve has greatly improved during the sell-off and this continues to have a mitigating effect on lower stock prices. The mortgage market collapse continues its role as the primary agent, and we expect the fall out to be constructive for bonds and treasuries, which is where more than half of our master model portfolio positions currently live. In addition, stronger Asian economies such as China are deliberately choking growth with higher rates. A trend that will impact US growth rates sooner rather than later, and reinforce the multi-decade freefall of the US Dollar.

More...  http://www.financialtrader.com/Stock_Buy_and_Sell_Opportunities.html 

Halliburton moves to the Middle East in the modern sequel to Ali Baba and the 40 thieves.  No doubt, the move provided ample fodder for the politicians, but from the investor's perspective what does it really mean?

Historically, the multinational corporation was always considered borderless and country-less, so from a purely operational viewpoint the move means little.

For the historically challenged, multinationals were viewed with suspicion by some of the founding fathers as 'traitors in waiting'.  However, from a strategic standpoint, it is clear that big oil and oil services have more friends in the oil producing nations than in the U.S., where the momentum to go green is now inexorable and the most significant economic construct of the decade.

Readers know that we have been bearish the crude complex and several large cap oil stocks based (in part)  on this underlying trend.  Halliburton's move is risky from the public relations perspective, but from a business vantage, the company needs to position itself in a growth market, which is one of the  ostensible reasons for the move. More... http://financialtrader.com/Commentary/HAL_Sell_And_Analysis.html

The Media is Full Of Amateurs

While the media is quick to point out a recent 120% gain in China's Shanghai index, most fail to mention that over the past six years the index gained only slightly more than 30%. Hardly a runaway bull market, and nowhere near the tulip market levels achieved in 2001 right here in the U.S. We find that the recent decline in the index has provided some excellent entry points for a number of solid Chinese business models, including MR.

More... http://www.financialtrader.com/MR_Mini-Re/MR_Buy_And_Analysis.html

Corrections and bear markets do have one redeeming quality, they usually stay around no longer than a disloyal friend.  And that is a good thing for it reveals how many investor friends your stocks actually possess.  Friends you say, 'my stocks are outright lepers in this environment'.  But there is good news...

The market has sold off so quickly and with such fear that our sentiment models now throttle near bullish, after reading negative for weeks.  In addition, our initial support objectives in the SPX and the NASDAQ were met this Monday, 3.6.2007, on the close of trade.

From a fundamental perspective, the yield curve has greatly improved during the speedy sell-off and this will have a mitigating effect on lower stock prices.  At the very least, our WatlooSoft© models are currently flashing a trading bottom, which is positive when bundled with the sentiment figures.

The mortgage meltdown from the housing market gluttony of the past few years stands as the primary fundamental negative. Not to worry though, the feds will certainly smash rates soon to soothe frayed nerves and avoid an outright $600 billion dollar mortgage market collapse, just like they did with Long Term Capital. But, as we noted earlier in our bond report, the fed is a bit behind the curve here; nevertheless, they will catch up, and make Alexander Hamilton proud.

More.. http://www.financialtrader.com/Stock_Trader/Stock_Buy_Opportunity_3.6.2007.html